All Insights by Date
23 September 2021, Mark Page
3 September 2021, Mark Page
Nobody wants their portfolio to be tossed around like an autumn leaf, driven by forces they don’t understand, with destination goodness knows where. This series will focus on the new ideas which helped us navigate some of the biggest market moves over the past 10-years.
9 July 2021, Mark Page
Half the world is predicting that US Treasury bond yields will rise sharply. A bystander might feel foolish for not seeing this. With bond yields falling sharply, it is no longer clear who the fools really are.
By March 2020 it had become clear that a vast wave of excess capital would be diverted into speculative assets including stocks.  Where is it headed and how might markets react? The current combination of degraded conventional economic yardsticks and the enhanced importance of storytelling in a low-r* world opens the possibility that people confuse dreams with unbiased forecasts. The Federal Reserve has chosen the lesser of two evils: a carefully judged shift towards NGDP-targeting as opposed to possibly entrenched deflation. Will stock investors respond? Will households and businesses keep believing? Western central banks’ ‘worst case’ scenario is spiralling inflation, unexpected and severe rate hikes, and deep recessions. The trouble is that the difference between their ‘base case’ and ‘worst case’ scenarios is largely irrelevant today.
12 January 2021, Mark Page
30 October 2020, Mark Page
18 September 2020, Mark Page
10 January 2020, Andrea Badelt
Financial regulators repeatedly warn of unfair practices in the retail investment space: high fees, price clustering, poor advice, low transparency, and what not. But nothing compares to real-life examples.
14 September 2021, Mark Page
This note reveals how standard UK investment fees can gobble up almost half your money every 20 years, and two thirds of your pension over an average working life. A hedge fund would not stand for this. Why should you?
Industry standard fees alone will typically erode 43% of portfolio value every 20-years*. Add poor performance into the equation and a saver’s long-term financial wellbeing can be severely damaged.
21 July 2021, Andrea Badelt
23 June 2021, Andrea Badelt
Behind the Curtains of the AM Industry #1 Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #1
We are delighted to share with you real-life examples of the parasitic creations we find sneaking around in the financial gloom, where they slowly eat your hard-earned savings and future happiness.
19 October 2021, Mark Page
Eriswell Capital Management Sneaky Financial Creation 2  FEE STACKING
28 October 2021, Mark Page
Until we change incentives long the entire ‘investment-production-consumption’ chain, we cannot expect to deliver anything close to the impact needed to combat climate change and other social problems
Photos by Ken Cheung, Anne Nygård, Marc Sendra Martorell, Rvoji Iwata , Kristina Four, Mark König, snowscat, krisna iv, Johannes Plenio, Sarah Kilian, Dimitry Grigoriev, Katie Moum; all on Unsplash
Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #2 Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #3 Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #4 Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #5 Behind the Curtains of the AM Industry #2 Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #6 Behind the Curtains of the AM Industry:  Sneaky Financial Creatons: #1 Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #7 Behind the Curtains of the AM Industry:  Sneaky Financial Creatons: #2 Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #8
With current high valuations, care should be exercised when listening to those rocking up late to the equity party, just as the band is packing up to go home.
Buying an active fund is worse than paying someone to play Roulette with your life savings. The data is clear: It tells a story of saver wealth destruction.
18 November 2021, Mark Page
Behind the Curtains  of the AM Industry:
11 January 2022, Mark Page
Can ESG investors help heal the world’s social and climate ills? Can they even identify companies moving towards a distant and desirable equilibrium? And do you trust them?
16 April 2022, Mark Page
Everyone is entitled to their own belief system and, for many, weapon makers have morphed from borderline pariah into a key public good. Leaving the ESG-industry has some serious questions to answer over its shady role in Ukraine.
Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #9 Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #10
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24 December 2020, Matthew Machin
This Christmas edition of our financial psychology series uses the science of honeybee behaviour as a framework to explain why trust in the financial services industry is at an all-time low.
First in this series, we explore the possibilities afforded by two-level theories to resharpen conventional econometric and stock valuation models which have been bent and blunted by post-2008 zero interest rate dynamics.
14 December 2020, Matthew Machin
Minds & Markets #2 Minds & Markets #1 Minds & Markets #6
28 January 2021, Matthew Machin
The new Robinhood retail stock jockeys see anything they want to see. In fact, all of us are blindsided by beliefs, including hedge fund managers. What is to be done?
Investors are increasingly nervous of rising asset prices but not entirely sure why, other than a vague sense of dread and an uncanny feeling of déjà vu. We investigate….
15 January 2021, Matthew Machin
Focus on what is actually driving markets, not what should drive them in a utopian world. And remember, every bubble contains the seeds of truth and of future opportunities.
12 February 2021, Matthew Machin
9 April 2021, Matthew Machin
Experts are mostly abominable financial forecasters, bad at short-term forecasting, bad at long-term forecasting, bad at forecasting stock prices. Yet investors continue to rely on the experts, even when their track records suggest otherwise.
Minds & Markets #5 Minds & Markets #4 Minds & Markets #3
19 July 2022, Mark Page
Investors are seeing 10-20% losses across their portfolios as stocks have fallen while bond markets are suffering close to their worst year on record. Are the “buy and hold” stars aligned for renewed success?
Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #11
3 August 2022, Mark Page
Financial ‘experts’ prefer to explain how things ‘should be’, rather than questioning the way they are. “Stick with it and prices will recover”, is the oft repeated response. But will they?
Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #12
11 August 2022, Mark Page
What age do you plan to retire? Bouncy markets are nobody’s fault, but they happen’ and the risk must be factored in. False accuracy is dangerous. It can ruin people’s lives.
Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #13
23 August 2022, Mark Page
We find it implausible that central banks who approached 2022 at what in monetary terms was the speed of heat, would not have known the basic things they needed to do, to avoid a violent collision with inflation.
Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #14
21 November 2022, Mark Page
The way the Truss Government fell should concern all who care about democracy. We’re not denying that Liz Truss and her erstwhile Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng made serious mistakes, they did, but they nevertheless had a mandate of sorts for their manifesto.
Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #15
13 January 2023, Mark Page
2022 proved to be a challenging year. Against this backdrop, Eriswell is delighted to have generated positive returns. But the most important lesson from 2022 – by far – was that predicting the future is extremely hard. This does not mean that good forecasts about the future are impossible.
Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #16 UK PENSIONS: false accuracy damages liVes THROUGH the eyes of a hedge fund manager how to outperform when  uncertainty is high THROUGH the eyes of a hedge fund manager What is out there that can kill us THROUGH the eyes of a hedge fund manager Find out more>  21 november 2022 bank of england or democracy?
20 March 2023, Mark Page
Financial markets find themselves in the midst of yet another violent patch that both regulators and mainstream investors failed to foresee. Those of you who have followed our latest research will know that the fabric of our modern economies and markets is woven from many semi-stable equilibria. You will also know that the switch from one semi-stable equilibrium to another tends to be violent and dangerous.
Markets, Economies & Asset Prices #17
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